Posts Tagged Gasoline and diesel usage and pricing

Gas Nags – NYTimes.com


Gas Nags

By TIMOTHY EGAN

 

Up and down the high plains side of the Rocky Mountains, a road warrior becomes a comparative shopper. Last week, regular gas was $3.24 a gallon at the Safeway in Laramie, Wyo., $3.43 a gallon at Costco in Colorado Springs. A new American car, with an average fuel economy of 24 miles to the gallon, could cruise the entire midsection of Colorado on a single tank and still have enough change from $50 to buy caffeinated swill the color of the Houston Ship Channel.

Wait a minute: wasn’t gas supposed to be $5 a gallon now, costing $75 for that same trip? Let’s return to the experts:

“Certainly, this summer, we’ll see the highest gas prices in years.” So said House Speaker John Boehner, in February.

“Right now we’re headed toward $5 a gallon and by the end of summer – maybe 6.” That was Bill O’Reilly, of Fox News, in the same month.

“They’re gonna go to $5, $6, $7.” And that was Donald Trump in April, showing why he’s no better at predicting fuel prices than he is at reading public documents from the state of Hawaii.

As of Monday, the average price for a gallon of self-service regular was $3.38, according to the AAA daily survey, down from a peak of $3.93 in April. Prices fell just as Republicans and their partners at Fox launched a campaign to blame high gas costs on President Obama. The price is a graphic update, reminding voters of something with a real effect on their daily lives.

Gas prices have fallen well below $4 per gallon this summer, with the national average this week at $3.38.

Sue Ogrocki/Associated PressGas prices have fallen well below $4 per gallon this summer, with the national average this week at $3.38.

What does this unlikely gas price shrinkage prove, at the peak of the summer driving season no less, other than the hardy consumer advisory that people who demagogue for a living should stick to things that can’t be fact-checked?

For one, it shows that in the United States we’re still awash in cheap oil. Ask any European, used to paying $7 and $8 a gallon to fuel their golf-cart-size vehicles, what it’s like to fill up at the Loaf ‘N Jug in Fort Collins – reverse sticker shock.

But more broadly, this little economic parable is a good lesson in the phony politics that passes for a national debate on energy. Back in March, Mitt Romney, who certainly knows better, said there was “no question” that Obama was to blame for rising gasoline prices. At the same time, one of his surrogates, Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, said Obama “should be held fully responsible for what the American public is paying for gasoline.”

O.K., so now that gas is much closer to $3 than $4, does Obama get the credit for the windfall, as Republicans indicated when they fell into this silly rhetorical trap? No, of course not. Fox hardly brings it up anymore. Gas prices – no story there.

But nor should Obama get to do a victory lap. Harvey, the invisible rabbit now strolling the boards on Broadway, has about as much power over the price of a global commodity like oil as the president of the United States does. And most voters, ahead of the politicians, understand that.

Obama is no environmental obstructionist, sad to say. There’s been more drilling on public land – much to the chagrin of lovers of wild open spaces in the West — under Obama’s watch than in the eight years of George W. Bush. It hasn’t done diddly to the global price. Oil companies are sitting on 7,000 leases to drill for oil which they’ve yet to tap.

And with the boom in North Dakota and elsewhere in the plains, Americans are less dependent on foreign sources: imports were 45 percent of total consumption last year, down from 60 percent in 2005.

But increasingly not all American oil stays in the states. Last year, for the first time since 1949, the United States exported more petroleum products than it imported, the Energy Department reported.

Drill, baby, drill is a fun thing for Republicans to chant back at Sarah Palin, but as a policy, it’s mindless, and enriches no one but an oil industry that made nearly $140 billion in profits last year.

The slogan, somewhat refined, sounds even worse when President Obama says it. “You have my word that we will keep drilling everywhere we can,” Obama told a crowd of oil workers in New Mexico earlier this year, when he was trying to get out ahead of the gas blame game.

Republicans say the Keystone XL Pipeline, which would ship dirty tar sands oil from Canada to the United States (and which Obama has refused to O.K.), could bring relief at the pump. Not a chance. The pipeline, under the best case scenario, would not open until 2020, and even then its output will be pegged to the global price, unless a President Palin decides to nationalize it.

Refinery production can lead to some short-term price manipulation, as we saw on the West Coast, which has the nation’s highest gas prices. Critics suspected willful withholding of full supplies to gas stations, as a way to run up the price, though the refineries said it was a simple capacity problem caused by repairs and other backups.

Most economists say the price at the pump has declined because the world has plenty of oil at a time of global economic slowdown. Production hit an all-time high earlier this year, while demand flattened – especially in Europe, which is using less oil than at any time since 1994.

It won’t fuel a talk radio rant on a long drive – better to listen to Springsteen sing about a “pink Cadillac” – but gas prices are pegged to a basic tenet of this summer’s economic conditions. Supply is up, demand is down, and prices have fallen. Even Donald Trump understands that, at some level.

 Gas Nags – NYTimes.com.

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Falling at the pump: gas prices and GOP credibility – PostPartisan – The Washington Post


Post Partisan

Posted at 06:00 PM ET, 05/30/2012

Falling at the pump: gas prices and GOP credibility

By Jonathan Capehart

 

There was a great story in The Post yesterday that was nothing but good news for the American consumer. “Gas prices expected to fall further heading into summer” read the headline. Truth be told, the story isn’t new. Dropping pump prices have been reported on for about a month now.

Yet, what interested me most was the chart that accompanied yesterday’s story. It depicts the daily average price for regular gas over the last year, from May 2011 through May 2012. Were it a noise meter, it would also chart the volume of Republican hysteria over rising gas prices.


(AAA ‘s Daily Fuel Gauge Report/The Washington Post)

As gas prices hit their highest levels in February so did the noise from the GOP. There were demands that oil companies be able to drill everywhere. There were calls for the Keystone pipeline to be approved. And the harsh attacks and the nonsensical solutions — hello? $2.50 gasoline?! — forced President Obama to respond.

By March, Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) declared that Obama was “fully responsible for what the American public is paying for gasoline.” Not true, as Bryan Walsh at Time pointed out then. And by April, Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS put out an ad echoing this point. “No matter how Obama spins it,” the narrator intoned, “gas costs too much.”

But by then, gas prices were starting to fall. As yesterday’s Post story noted, the national average gas price, which peaked at $3.91 in early April, was down to $3.64 on Memorial Day. That’s 17 cents cheaper than a year ago. According to Politico, Republicans are still going to target the president on gas prices. But with fuel costs expected to continue their downward slide, the GOP can expect its credibility on this issue to follow suit.

 Falling at the pump: gas prices and GOP credibility – PostPartisan – The Washington Post.

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Wall Street’s oil scam – AlterNet – Salon.com


FRIDAY, MAY 4

Wall Street’s oil scam

Who’s really to blame for high gas prices? Greedy finance speculators

BY LES LEOPOLDALTERNET

 

(Credit: willtrade4food / CC BY 2.0)

 

Gasoline prices have been falling in recent weeks, but they’re still close to their five-year high after climbing steeply for three years. For every penny increase at the pump, $1.4 billion per year leaves our collective pockets, creating a drag on the sluggish “recovery.” Where does it go and what caused the price explosion at the pump?

 

It’s a common belief that oil prices are set on the world market by supply and demand. Less supply and/or more demand causes prices to rise. Oil is getting harder to find; OPEC is holding back supply; China and India are guzzling it up; Iran is threatening to blow it up. And regulations are getting in the way of drill, baby, drill — end of story.

But this fixation on blind market forces ignores the fact that Wall Street is financializing the commodities markets – especially oil – as it seeks new ways to pick our pockets. The same greedy swindlers who puffed up the housing bubble and then milked it dry are now hard at work doing the same with gasoline.

What is financialization and why is it coming to the oil industry?

Here’s a chilling definition provided by economist Thomas I. Palley (PDF):

Financialization is a process whereby financial markets, financial institutions, and financial elites gain greater influence over economic policy and economic outcomes…..Its principal impacts are to (1) elevate the significance of the financial sector relative to the real sector, (2) transfer income from the real sector to the financial sector, and (3) increase income inequality and contribute to wage stagnation.

In short, we’re talking about the spread and growing supremacy of financial gambling – the ability to bet on the prices of goods produced in the real economy without actually owning those goods.

The vital activities of manufacturing, resource extraction and agriculture are turned into financial instruments that can be rapidly bought and sold. More to the point, financialization allows financial gamblers to extract profits from the real economy to enrich themselves without producing any real economic value for our economy.

When markets are financialized, they offer a myriad of ways for Wall Street firms to bend or break laws to manipulate markets and haul in enormous profits. In effect, financialization extracts a hidden tax from the real economy which is then passed onto us in the form of higher prices, economic hardship and then government bailouts when it all comes crashing down.

The oil markets have become just another profitable Wall Street casino. Why? Because, as the infamous outlaw Willie Sutton said, “That’s where the money is.” Oil markets as well as other commodity markets require a certain number of speculators. Oil producers and end users go to these markets in order to lock in prices for the products they use or sell. From refiners to shippers to airlines, oil markets provide a way to obtain price certainty for a specified period of time. To make these markets function, speculators are needed to take the other side of those trades. For more than a century about 30 percent of these commodity markets involved speculators and 70 percent of the participants in terms of volume were real producers, distributors and users. That’s what a healthy commodities market looks like.

But once financialization metastasized, the proportions flipped. Now70 percent of the action comes from speculators, while only 30 percent comes from those who really produce, distribute and use the actual commodities. The casino has taken over.

This speculative invasion is why gasoline prices are climbing rapidly. The only question remaining is how much of the price rise is due to excess speculation. Here’s what the experts say:

·         The St. Louis Federal Reserve (not exactly a Marxist institution) claims that 15 percent of the rise in gasoline prices is due to Wall Street speculation (PDF).

·         report from the House Committee on Government Oversight claims that up to 30 percent of the rise may be due to speculators.

·         Even experts at Goldman Sachs, of all places, say that “excessive speculation is causing oil prices to spike by up to 40 percent.”

·         And Saudi Arabia, ”the largest exporter of oil in the world, told the Bush administration back in 2008, during the last major spike in oil prices, that speculation was responsible for about $40 of a barrel of oil.”

This flip in the balance of real economic activity and speculation is precisely what John Maynard Keynes warned us about more than 75 years ago:

“Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. The measure of success attained by Wall Street, regarded as an institution of which the proper social purpose is to direct new investment into the most profitable channels in terms of future yield, cannot be claimed as one of the outstanding triumphs of laissez-faire capitalism….”

Who are the speculators?

Sen. Bernie Sanders released classified documents revealing the names of the largest speculators in the oil markets as of 2008.

A look at the top 20 speculators reveals that only five are actually involved in producing, shipping, refining and consuming oil (Vitol, CMA, ENA, Semgroup and Emirates Oil). The other 15 are banks and investment houses – a virtual who’s who of Wall Street firms that puffed up the housing bubble and took down the economy. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup — they all make the list.

A tale of two casinos

It’s stunning to compare the similarities between the housing bubble and the rise in oil prices. Just take a look at the two charts below. The first shows the price of a barrel of oil after eliminating the impact of inflation. You can see the price spike in the 1970s during the Iranian oil boycott, and then in the 1990s during the Persian Gulf War. Clearly, those significant geopolitical events disrupted supplies and had a real impact on the price of oil.

But look what happened when the Wall Street big boys jumped into the oil speculative business right around 2002-’03. The price of oil went bonkers. The gyrations were far more extreme than any of the previous geopolitical events. There is no rational supply-and-demand explanation that accounts for that dramatic rise. Sure, after the economy crashed in 2008 prices declined. That makes sense. But up again goes the price of oil even though we’re facing nothing like the supply and demand shifts caused by oil boycotts and wars. Then again, maybe it does indicate a new war – Wall Street versus the rest of us.

Click for larger version

 

Now take a look at the housing bubble graph – similar shape, similar timing. And that’s no coincidence. When Wall Street turns a market into an enormous casino, prices skyrocket and the economy is threatened. Wall Street did it to housing and now they’re doing it again to commodities — especially oil.

 

Click for larger version

 

Wall Street oil speculators kill jobs

When Wall Street jacks up gasoline prices through its speculative activities, it has two job-killing impacts. First, it sucks money out of our pockets to pay for gasoline, which in turn means we have less money to spend on other goods and services in the real economy. It’s the equivalent of an anti-stimulus tax. As gasoline prices go up, economic demand falters and workers in the real economy are laid off.

The second impact is more complex but just as real to unemployed oil workers on the East Coast where several refineries in the Philadelphia area are being shut down even though the price of refined gasoline is rising.

Here’s where it gets tricky. The East Coast gets its oil primarily from the North Sea. That’s called Brent oil. The rest of the country gets most of its oil from the Gulf Coast. That’s called West Texas. The two kinds of oil are very similar in content and traditionally were similarly priced. Not any more.

As the chart below illustrates, a gap has emerged so that Brent oil is now significantly more expensive. This means that the oil coming into East Coast refineries is more costly to refine. But the increased cost can’t be passed on at the pump because the national prices are mostly set by the lower cost West Texas oil (and from European refineries that are dumping gasoline in the U.S. as Europe switches more and more to diesel). As a result, East Coast refinery profits are squeezed, which in turn leads to the shutdowns.

But what accounts for the split between the two prices of oil? Some experts say Brent oil is becoming more expensive because other oil supplies coming into Europe from the Middle East are more vulnerable and uncertain due to the Iranian situation and the Arab Spring. Maybe so. But speculation also is at work. Because oil speculation regulations are more lax in London, it is likely that Brent oil is the raw material for a more profitable casino. As Wall Street money pours in, up go the prices…and down go the refineries and thousands of refinery workers.

 

Click for larger version

But wait, isn’t Wall Street helping the environment by driving up gasoline prices?

Without question the rise in gasoline prices moves the nation toward more fuel-efficient cars, which in turn will reduce greenhouse gas pollution. But relying on Wall Street to cause this dynamic is ridiculous, foolish and grossly unfair. First, because Wall Street speculators not only drive up prices they create price instability – rising prices followed by rapid crashes. If a recession follows, gas prices will crash and the incentive to purchase fuel-efficient cars will disappear. Second, rising gas prices without offsetting credits for low-income people are very regressive – meaning lower-income people pay a higher share of their income on fuel costs.

But more galling is the fact that Wall Street speculators are pocketing what amounts to a gas tax as if they were the duly-elected government of the United States (maybe they are the government, butnot duly-elected).

If we want to tax carbon for the sake of the environment (and we should), then the government should do so and collect the revenues, not Wall Street. And if we think that Wall Street’s nefarious way is better than nothing at all, than heaven help us.

How do we rein in the speculation?

President Obama recently called for $58 million in order to put “more cops on the beat” at the regulatory agencies that police the commodities markets. Supposedly these extra cops would be able to prosecute more cases of price manipulation and other blatant violations of the rules and regulations that govern commodity trading.

This effort, while laudable, doesn’t go nearly far enough. The best way to check speculation may be through a financial transaction tax that makes it less profitable to speculate in commodity markets. A relatively small tax on all financial transactions would likely reduce the number of bogus speculators. That’s the only message they understand. Enforcement of weak rules matters little to those who spend all their waking hours playing and dreaming up new financial casino games. The only way forward is to take away their chips.

Unfortunately, the Obama administration opposes any and all financial taxes for fear they will upset financial markets. Well, this market is already upset by financial greed and corruption. Hopefully, the administration will learn before it’s too late that the American people are sick and tired of being fleeced by Wall Street.

In the meantime, next time you fill up your tank, remind yourself that something like $10 to $25 is going right from your pocket to Wall Street. Maybe that will get us to join the fight for a financial transaction tax. It’s long overdue.

Wall Street’s oil scam – AlterNet – Salon.com.

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Analysis: More US drilling didn’t drop gas price | Minnesota Public Radio News


Analysis: More US drilling didn’t drop gas price

March 22, 2012



By SETH BORENSTEIN and JACK GILLUM, Associated Press

Larger view

WASHINGTON (AP) – It’s the political cure-all for high gas prices: Drill here, drill now. But more U.S. drilling has not changed how deeply the gas pump drills into your wallet, math and history show.

A statistical analysis of 36 years of monthly, inflation-adjusted gasoline prices and U.S. domestic oil production by The Associated Press shows no statistical correlation between how much oil comes out of U.S. wells and the price at the pump.

If more domestic oil drilling worked as politicians say, you’d now be paying about $2 a gallon for gasoline. Instead, you’re paying the highest prices ever for March.

Political rhetoric about the blame over gas prices and the power to change them – whether Republican claims now or Democrats’ charges four years ago – is not supported by cold, hard figures. And that’s especially true about oil drilling in the U.S. More oil production in the United States does not mean consistently lower prices at the pump.

Sometimes prices increase as American drilling ramps up. That’s what has happened in the past three years. Since February 2009, U.S. oil production has increased 15 percent when seasonally adjusted. Prices in those three years went from $2.07 per gallon to $3.58. It was a case of drilling more and paying much more.

U.S. oil production is back to the same level it was in March 2003, when gas cost $2.10 per gallon when adjusted for inflation. But that’s not what prices are now.

That’s because oil is a global commodity and U.S. production has only a tiny influence on supply. Factors far beyond the control of a nation or a president dictate the price of gasoline.

When you put the inflation-adjusted price of gas on the same chart as U.S. oil production since 1976, the numbers sometimes go in the same direction, sometimes in opposite directions. If drilling for more oil meant lower prices, the lines on the chart would consistently go in opposite directions. A basic statistical measure of correlation found no link between the two, and outside statistical experts confirmed those calculations.

“Drill, baby, drill has nothing to do with it,” said Judith Dwarkin, chief energy economist at ITG investment research. Two other energy economists said the same thing and experts in the field have been making that observation for decades.

The statistics directly contradict the title of GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich’s 2008 book “Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less,” as well as the campaign-trail claims from the GOP presidential candidates.

Earlier this month, GOP front-runner Mitt Romney said of his solution to higher gas prices: “I can cut through the baloney … and just tell him, ‘Mr. President, open up drilling in the Gulf, open up drilling in ANWR (the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge). Open up drilling in continental shelf, drill in North Dakota, drill in Oklahoma and Texas.’ “

On Wednesday, with President Barack Obama traveling to oil and gas production fields on federal lands, Crossroads GPS, a nonprofit arm of a super PAC supporting GOP candidates, released a new ad to air in the same states that Obama was visiting. It accused Obama of restricting oil development in America and concludes “bad energy policies mean energy prices we can’t afford.”

The late 1980s and 1990s show exactly how domestic drilling is not related to gas prices.

Seasonally adjusted U.S. oil production dropped steadily from February 1986 until three years ago. But starting in March 1986, inflation-adjusted gas prices fell below the $2-a-gallon mark and stayed there for most of the rest of the 1980s and 1990s. Production between 1986 and 1999 dropped by nearly one-third. If the drill-now theory were correct, prices should have soared. Instead they went down by nearly a dollar.

The AP analysis used Energy Department figures for regular unleaded gas prices adjusted for inflation to 2012 dollars, oil production and oil demand. The figures go back to January 1976, the earliest the Energy Department keeps figures on unleaded gas prices. Phil Hanser, an economist and statistician at the energy consulting firm The Brattle Group; University of South Carolina statistics professor John Grego; New York University statistics professor Edward Melnick and David Peterson, a retired Duke University statistics professor, looked at the analysis, ran their own calculations, including several complicated formulas, and came to the same conclusion.

When U.S. production goes up, the price of gas “is certainly not going down,” Melnick said. “The data does not suggest that whatsoever.”

The calculations “help make the point that U.S. production and demand have little to do with the price of gasoline in the U.S., and lend support to the notion that there is not a great deal we in the U.S., acting alone, can do to affect the price of gasoline,” Peterson wrote in an email. He pointed out that Energy Department figures show that gas prices in the U.S. seem to rise and fall similarly to gas prices in Europe, showing that it has little to do with American drilling.

And that’s the key. It’s a world market, economists say.

Unlike natural gas or electricity, the United States alone does not have the power to change the supply-and-demand equation in the world oil market, said Christopher Knittel, a professor of energy economics at MIT. American oil production is about 11 percent of the world’s output, so even if the U.S. were to increase its oil production by 50 percent – that is more than drilling in the Arctic, increased public-lands and offshore drilling, and the Canadian pipeline would provide – it would at most cut gas prices by 10 percent.

“There are not many markets where the United States can’t impose its will on market outcomes,” Knittel said. “This is one we can’t, and it’s hard for the average American to understand that and it’s easy for politicians to feed off that.”

If drilling activity rises around the globe for a sustained period of time, gasoline prices can fall as that new supply eventually finds its way to market, but the U.S. can’t do it alone, oil analysts say.

Politicians – especially those in the party that’s not occupying the White House – have long harped on high gas prices when expedient. Then-Sen. Barack Obama said in 2008, when he was running for president, that “here in Ohio, you’re paying nearly $3.70 a gallon for gas, 2-1/2 times what it cost when George Bush took office.”

But Obama, who has seen gas prices go up 73 percent since he took office, was singing a different tune last week in his weekly radio address: “The truth is: The price of gas depends on a lot of factors that are often beyond our control. Unrest in the Middle East can tighten global oil supply. Growing nations like China or India adding cars to the road increases demand. But one thing we should control is fraud and manipulation that can cause prices to spike even further.”

The political party of the president doesn’t seem to matter to the price at the pump either. Since 1976, the average monthly gas price, adjusted for inflation, during Democratic presidencies has been $2.25; under Republicans it’s been $2.34. Obama had the steepest monthly average at $3.05 and Bill Clinton the cheapest at $1.68.

When Bush and running mate Dick Cheney campaigned in 2000, they argued that as oil executives they could get oil prices down, with Bush saying, “I would work with our friends in OPEC to convince them to open up the spigot, to increase the supply.”

Yet it was during the last few months of Bush’s term in 2008 that gas prices hit their highest: $4.27 when adjusted for inflation.

Associated Press writers Dina Cappiello and Matthew Daly in Washington and Jonathan Fahey in New York contributed to this report.

(Copyright 2012 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

 Analysis: More US drilling didn’t drop gas price | Minnesota Public Radio News.

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